What Are the Initiatives Amendment Campaign Cost Estimates?
Initiatives Amendment Campaign Cost Estimates
Best Case Scenario
In the best initiatives amendment campaign cost estimates case, the States will perceive that the planned Amendment is to the benefit of both the People and the States, and will adopt and later ratify the Amendment. The costs in this case would probably be just a few million dollars.
Worst Case Scenario.
This scenario supposes a lack of State support, so that the People have to force the issue through votes to pass State initiatives and to demand that their elected representative vote in favor of the planned Citizens’ Initiatives Amendment.
The non-governmental costs of Initiatives to endorse this planned Amendment in all the 24 States that allow State Initiatives would be about $160 million. These estimates are based on linear interpolation of the range of actual initiative costs and State information provided in the sources.
| State Initiative Cost Estimates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STATES WITH DIRECT INITIATIVES | INDIRECT INITIATIVES | INITIATIVE COSTS | ||
| STATE | STATUTE | CONSTITUTIONAL | ||
| Alaska | X | 2700000 | ||
| Arizona | X | X | 6500000 | |
| Arkansas | X | X | 4300000 | |
| California | X | X | 29700000 | |
| Colorado | X | X | 5700000 | |
| Florida | X | 15400000 | ||
| Idaho | X | 3300000 | ||
| Illinois | X | 12000000 | ||
| Maine | X | 3200000 | ||
| Massachusetts | X | 7200000 | ||
| Michigan | X | X | 10000000 | |
| Mississippi | X | 4400000 | ||
| Missouri | X | X | 6600000 | |
| Montana | X | X | 2900000 | |
| Nebraska | X | X | 3600000 | |
| Nevada | X | X | 3900000 | |
| North Dakota | X | X | 2700000 | |
| Ohio | X | X | 11100000 | |
| Oklahoma | X | X | 4900000 | |
| Oregon | X | X | 5000000 | |
| South Dakota | X | X | 2800000 | |
| Utah | X | X | 4000000 | |
| Washington | X | X | 7000000 | |
| Wyoming | X | 2600000 | ||
| 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 161500000 |
| DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS | ||||
| Broadcast Advertising | 70400000 | |||
| Advertising Literature | 28900000 | |||
| General Expenses | 18300000 | |||
| Consultants | 16600000 | |||
| Signature Gathering | 11600000 | |||
| Outdoor Advertising | 6600000 | |||
| Newspaper Advertising | 4300000 | |||
| Fund raising | 2400000 | |||
| Travel | 2400000 | |||
| 161500000 | ||||
| Sources of Data: | ||||
| Schevitz, Jan A., The Fourth Branch of Government. May 2000 | ||||
| Kearsley, Steve, San Francisco Chronicle. May 18-20, 1998 | ||||
| Initiatives & Referendum Institute | ||||
The remaining 26 States plus those Initiative States that do not support the Initiative will cost considerably more than the initiative States themselves. Thus, a rough guesstimate is that total costs will run on the order of $500 million.
Most Probable Case Scenario
Until the effort to support and adopt this planned Amendment is underway, the estimate is inevitably very uncertain. Just based on a guess that the final estimate will probably lie between the two extremes, a “talking” guesstimate for the moment is about $250 million. This will can be refined as the States’ positions become clearer.
Note: These are based on fiscal 2000 numbers and need updating